What have we learned?
Before I realized, my first semester at UCL and therefore, my 14 weeks of blogging are nearing an end. Let's reflect back on the journey and what this end looks like.
I started writing this blog with a few questions.
What are the sources and sinks of methane and what are their relative contribution?
We have explored the sources and sinks, and saw that there is still much uncertainty about the relative contributions.
Can global warming lead to a tipping point at which a large amount of methane in the permafrost will be released?
We have seen that a carbon explosion is not likely to happen, but that gradual release can lead to a large addition to the atmosphere.
Why did global methane concentrations level off from the 1980s and why did they increase again after 2007?
We saw that the stabilization was caused by a stabilization in fossil fuels use and that the cause for the abrupt increase is still a topic of debate.
Additionally, we explored the ways to measure methane concentrations and we now know that methane levels are not in the range of natural variability - in fact, human influence on methane levels could already have started 5000 years ago and is now 66% of the total emissions. Reductions of methane emissions lay in the fields of industry leaks and agriculture.
What I have learned most these 14 weeks, is how little we actually know about methane, but also how fast research is growing on the topic. I was really worried about the rise of methane at the beginning of this blog. How can a compound that is ~28 times more powerful and has a growth rate much faster than CO2 receive less attention? Although I still strongly believe that methane emissions should be reduced, I am less worried now. Reduction of methane emissions will reduce climate forcing in just a few years, due to the relatively short lifetime. And, maybe a bit optimistic, but I think we will reduce methane emissions. Research is growing on the possibilities to reduce fossil fuel and agricultural emissions and pressure on companies to reduce emissions is increasing too. The only thing that rests is to start doing it.
I started writing this blog with a few questions.
What are the sources and sinks of methane and what are their relative contribution?
We have explored the sources and sinks, and saw that there is still much uncertainty about the relative contributions.
Can global warming lead to a tipping point at which a large amount of methane in the permafrost will be released?
We have seen that a carbon explosion is not likely to happen, but that gradual release can lead to a large addition to the atmosphere.
Why did global methane concentrations level off from the 1980s and why did they increase again after 2007?
We saw that the stabilization was caused by a stabilization in fossil fuels use and that the cause for the abrupt increase is still a topic of debate.
Additionally, we explored the ways to measure methane concentrations and we now know that methane levels are not in the range of natural variability - in fact, human influence on methane levels could already have started 5000 years ago and is now 66% of the total emissions. Reductions of methane emissions lay in the fields of industry leaks and agriculture.
What I have learned most these 14 weeks, is how little we actually know about methane, but also how fast research is growing on the topic. I was really worried about the rise of methane at the beginning of this blog. How can a compound that is ~28 times more powerful and has a growth rate much faster than CO2 receive less attention? Although I still strongly believe that methane emissions should be reduced, I am less worried now. Reduction of methane emissions will reduce climate forcing in just a few years, due to the relatively short lifetime. And, maybe a bit optimistic, but I think we will reduce methane emissions. Research is growing on the possibilities to reduce fossil fuel and agricultural emissions and pressure on companies to reduce emissions is increasing too. The only thing that rests is to start doing it.
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